Assessing the exposure risk of large pelagic fish to oil spills scenarios in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico

Authors: A. E. Romo-Curiel, Z. Ramírez-Mendoza, A. Fajardo-Yamamoto, M. R. Ramírez-León, M. C. García-Aguilar, S. Z. Herzka, P. Pérez-Brunius, L. E. Saldaña-Ruiz, J. Sheinbaum, K. Kotzakoulakis, J. Rodríguez-Outerelo, F. Medrano, O.Sosa-Nishizaki

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.113434

Abstract
Exposure risk is assessed based on modeling suitable habitat of large pelagic fish and oil spill scenarios originating at three wells located in the western GM’s deep waters. Since the fate of the oil depends on the oceanographic conditions present during the accident, as well as the magnitude and duration of the spill, which are not known a priori, the scenarios used are a statistical representation of the area in which oil spilled from the well could be found, given all possible outcomes. The ecological vulnerability assessment identified a subset of bony fish with low-medium vulnerability and elasmobranchs with medium-high vulnerability. The oiling probability and exposure risk of both bony fish and elasmobranchs hotspots vary by well analyzed. Thus, these results provide essential information for a risk management plan for the assessed species and others with economic or conservation importance distributed in the GM and worldwide.

Keywords: Habitat suitability, Probabilistic risk, Oil vulnerability, Hotspots